Udo's Techblog

Via Responsible Nanotechnology: CRN is running an article called The Fermi Death Sentence, which infers that there must be some barrier preventing advanced civilizations from forming.

The Fermi Paradox, of course, concerns itself with the mathematical probability of life and finds that, even when using very conservative numbers, the universe is teeming with it. More importantly though, Fermi asks the question: if the universe is full of life, why isn't the sky full of flying saucers? Why isn't our radio spectrum totally polluted with extrasolar transmissions? Why are there no artifacts on earth suggesting somebody was here before us?

CRN and many others conclude from this that all intelligent life is doomed and thus a colonialization or even exploration of the galaxy a scientific impossibility. Since CRN concerns itself with nanotechnology, they think about how maybe the development of nanotech could be the final nail in the coffin of all intelligent beings.

Using statistics to make "definite" assumptions about singular instances (a.k.a. humanity's existence in this case), Mike Treder allows for 3, and only three, possible scenarios:

We are the first intelligent beings capable of expanding into the cosmos and making our presence known. There have been no others.

There have been others before us, but all of them, without exception, have chosen -- or somehow been forced -- to expand in such a way that they are presently undetectable by our most sophisticated instruments.

There have been others, but all of them, without exception, have run into a cosmic roadblock that either destroys them or prevents their expansion beyond a small radius.

If nothing else, this example beautifully illustrates the dangers of applying statistics to single events. I'm sure, everyone of us can think of dozens of reasons for the status quo and none of them requires the scientifically improbable conclusion that every single intelligent race wiped itself out with nanotechnology (or bio warfare, or climate change, or whatever).

Just a few of them might include or be any combination of:

• We might be living in the galactic equivalent of a national park.


• Evidence is there, but it's being covered up.


• Our part of space has not been colonized yet or it was "recently" sterilized by a cosmic event.


• Our patch of space was colonized, but so long ago that the evidence is gone now.


• Only primitive civilizations use radio waves (because they're very impractical at long distances).


• The Singularity already happened and/or we're living in a simulation.


• The advancement of virtual reality makes space exporation unattractive.

Diclaimer: These are in no particular order, by no means complete, I'm not believing in any particular one of them. These are just more theoretical possibilities.

I am just trying to show that the Fermi Death Sentence argument attempts use misguidedly applied mathematics to elevate a point that would otherwise be merely one more theoretical possibility among many. As they say in reality TV: you decide.